Racing System Theories

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Racing System Theories - The truth.

There are many horse racing systems out there which, in my experience, are based on rules that are completely based on nonsense. The rules seem to make sense but when you view the statistics they are pointless.

This is a fact that really annoys me, having spent a lot of money on systems with these rules, both laying and backing systems, so I’ve decided to write this article which will disprove the make believe theories’ many systems base their rules on so people will stop falling for the same old rubbish time after time.

All tables are taken from the website www.adrianmassey.com ; you can check the validity of many system rules by viewing the statistical facts gathered from the year 2000 right up until present day.

Below I’ve listed the most common theories that are found in many systems. I’ve used 1^st 2^nd and 3^rd favorites for the examples as these are what most laying systems and many backing systems use.

THEORY: Horses that have run in the last 30 days have a better chance of winning or are more reliable form wise.

Number of Previous Runs in the Last 30 Days
	Favourite					2nd Favourite					3rd Favourite
	Outcome			Return		Outcome			Return		Outcome			Return
	Bets	Win	Place	Win	E/W	Bets	Win	Place	Win	E/W	Bets	Win	Place	Win	E/W
0	31524	36%	62%	94%	92%	31576	21%	49%	90%	90%	32619	14%	38%	88%	88%
1	54429	35%	62%	91%	91%	45154	20%	49%	86%	89%	40413	13%	39%	83%	86%
2	24654	33%	62%	92%	92%	20283	20%	50%	91%	92%	18161	14%	40%	84%	88%
3	6184	32%	61%	95%	94%	4973	19%	48%	89%	91%	4250	14%	40%	87%	90%
4	1238	30%	58%	92%	91%	972	19%	47%	88%	90%	712	10%	37%	61%	73%
5	228	29%	64%	90%	95%	160	19%	46%	88%	87%	122	16%	41%	95%	96%
6	47	38%	60%	103%	96%	32	16%	59%	79%	96%	13	15%	46%	88%	100%
7+	12	17%	58%	55%	70%	8	38%	75%	175%	158%	7	0%	14%	0%	14%

As you can see from the above table in the win percentage column horses that have never ran, ever, win more than nearly any other front end horse. (Ignore 7+ Second fave section. there were only 12 races so it’s not reliable info)

People seem to be under the impression that if a horse has never ran or hasn’t ran in a while it’s been sat around the stable eating carrots and chilling with its mates down at the nags head, and ones that ran that month will be in better shape. It should be pretty obvious that horses train on a regular basis and a horse that ran yesterday is not necessarily going to be in better shape than one that ran last year.

THEORY: If a horse hasn’t ran in the last 90 days it’s unlikely it will win.

Rubbish!

Number of Previous Runs in the Last 90 Days
	Favourite					2nd Favourite					3rd Favourite
	Outcome			Return		Outcome			Return		Outcome			Return
	Bets	Win	Place	Win	E/W	Bets	Win	Place	Win	E/W	Bets	Win	Place	Win	E/W
0	14424	38%	63%	94%	91%	15563	21%	49%	91%	90%	17035	14%	37%	87%	87%
1	24663	36%	63%	89%	89%	20377	20%	48%	83%	85%	18193	13%	38%	80%	84%
2	24066	36%	63%	93%	92%	20157	20%	49%	88%	90%	18308	14%	39%	83%	86%
3	20864	34%	62%	94%	93%	17565	20%	49%	91%	91%	15926	14%	39%	89%	90%
4	15231	33%	62%	94%	93%	12936	20%	50%	91%	93%	11858	14%	40%	84%	88%
5	9162	31%	61%	92%	92%	7858	20%	49%	90%	92%	7345	14%	40%	85%	88%
6	5100	30%	60%	91%	92%	4447	20%	49%	92%	93%	3992	14%	40%	88%	90%
7+	4806	28%	59%	90%	92%	4255	19%	48%	89%	91%	3640	13%	39%	85%	88%

As you can see it makes no difference and in fact favorites that have never ran win the most!

THEORY: If a horse came 1^st or 2^nd in its last race it has a greater chance of winning or placing as it is progressing in form.

Position in Most Recent Race
	Favourite					2nd Favourite					3rd Favourite
	Outcome			Return		Outcome			Return		Outcome			Return
	Bets	Win	Place	Win	E/W	Bets	Win	Place	Win	E/W	Bets	Win	Place	Win	E/W
1st	34391	37%	63%	93%	92%	19884	21%	48%	87%	88%	13111	14%	38%	82%	84%
2nd	28597	35%	64%	91%	91%	19735	21%	51%	89%	90%	14188	14%	41%	85%	88%
3rd	15943	33%	61%	92%	91%	15182	20%	50%	88%	90%	13408	14%	39%	85%	87%
4th	10187	32%	61%	91%	90%	11198	20%	49%	91%	92%	11177	14%	39%	84%	87%
5th	6308	31%	59%	92%	91%	7820	19%	48%	88%	89%	8523	14%	39%	85%	88%
6th	4375	32%	60%	95%	93%	5455	20%	49%	90%	92%	6348	13%	39%	85%	89%
7th+	10618	32%	59%	98%	94%	14343	20%	48%	91%	91%	18394	13%	38%	87%	88%
F	2167	35%	60%	88%	87%	2313	19%	46%	76%	80%	2272	14%	35%	82%	84%
P	1091	34%	57%	94%	89%	1632	21%	47%	88%	89%	2500	13%	33%	83%	82%

Yes this is true but seemingly only for favorites and by such a small percentage (2-3%) it won’t make you any extra profit and you will still make a loss in the long run, the odds for such horses will also usually be very low as the bookies will price it up like it has more of a 20-30% chance, not 2-3%. As you can see horses that fell over or were pulled out of a race because they couldn’t hack it last time out have nearly the same win rate as winning favourites (a mere 2-3% difference)

THEORY: Less runners means more chance of winning.

Number of Runners
	Favourite					2nd Favourite					3rd Favourite
	Outcome			Return		Outcome			Return		Outcome			Return
	Bets	Win	Place	Win	E/W	Bets	Win	Place	Win	E/W	Bets	Win	Place	Win	E/W
2 - 5	14054	50%	63%	96%	95%	13087	26%	41%	89%	89%	12753	15%	27%	82%	83%
6 - 7	19875	40%	63%	94%	89%	17736	23%	47%	88%	86%	17065	15%	34%	88%	82%
8 - 9	21602	35%	69%	91%	92%	18909	21%	57%	90%	93%	17934	15%	48%	87%	93%
10 -11	19817	33%	65%	93%	92%	17174	19%	53%	87%	90%	15970	13%	44%	84%	89%
12 -13	17132	29%	60%	89%	90%	14618	18%	49%	90%	91%	13435	12%	39%	82%	86%
14 -15	11342	28%	57%	93%	91%	9665	17%	45%	89%	89%	8712	12%	37%	85%	86%
16+	14494	25%	55%	92%	93%	11969	15%	45%	87%	92%	10428	11%	37%	84%	89%

Yes this is true but only for favorites, but in races with lower amounts of runners the odds for the favourite will be quite short so the higher strike rate won’t help you. Bookies aren’t stupid they also know this fact.

THEORY: If a horse hasn’t placed recently it has a low chance of placing and a very low chance of winning.

Races Since Last Placed
	Favourite					2nd Favourite					3rd Favourite
	Outcome			Return		Outcome			Return		Outcome			Return
	Bets	Win	Place	Win	E/W	Bets	Win	Place	Win	E/W	Bets	Win	Place	Win	E/W
0 (Placed Last Time)	75612	35%	63%	92%	92%	51091	21%	50%	89%	90%	36926	14%	40%	85%	87%
1	16844	34%	61%	93%	92%	17751	20%	49%	90%	91%	17377	14%	39%	89%	90%
2	6487	32%	59%	92%	91%	7823	20%	47%	87%	88%	9050	14%	38%	88%	89%
3 - 4	4789	30%	57%	91%	89%	6762	20%	47%	89%	90%	8267	13%	37%	83%	85%
5 or more	3025	29%	56%	95%	93%	4573	19%	45%	90%	89%	6449	13%	36%	85%	87%
Never Placed	6920	35%	63%	94%	92%	9562	19%	49%	85%	87%	11852	12%	37%	78%	84%
Debut	4639	38%	65%	94%	91%	5596	20%	49%	89%	89%	6376	13%	37%	87%	87%

As you can see from the FACTS, horses that placed last time out win the exact same amount of times as horses that have never placed, and horses that have never even ran a race win more! You would never think this was true, but it most certainly is.

You will find at least one of the above theories’ in most horse racing systems. Either the systems writers know that 99% of the unaware punting public will fall for them or they have read these theory’s somewhere and have fallen for it themselves because it sounds logical.

Either way if you buy a system that has any of the above rules in them, ignore the rule. Many lay systems use all the above rules as well as ones such as whether or not it’s the racing posts post data selection. It’s a sad fact post data selections have a very low win rate so you probably can ignore that rule as well.

I hope the above has helped you see the light were many racing systems are concerned and put to bed the rumors that so many people think are facts..

Credit to the AdrianMassey.com site for the statistical info.

Racing System Theories - The truth.

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