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Winners To Losers is a horse racing laying system written by the owners of “The alternative punters syndicate” (TAPS) and it is a very well advertised and reviewed system which at one point seemed to be the most talked about laying system on the internet. However I have found most review sites do not tell the whole story and tend to sugar coat the system. This is hardly surprising given the big commission cheque the author offers for each sale you make.

The results on the website are all true enough, but then they are obviously back tested using software so they are bound to be. The staking plan is also simple to use and does not involve loss chasing which is always nice. They simply advise you risk 14% of you bank on every bet OR use level stakes. The selection process is also very fast and simple to do.

 The problem does not lie within the results or method because every horse shown was indeed a selection. In fact they say that if you can find a single incorrect selection they will pay you £1000! Instead the problem is the odds and the way they show the profits.

The advertised results are impossible to achieve without a crystal ball. They show results to SP (which you will never ever get on a regular basis) and results to 10% above SP which you will find very hard to get also. The prices will more likely be between 15 and 40% above SP realistically because of the odds range they use.  There are many lays with odds between 8.0 and 15.0 and also a few around 20.0 (and that’s to SP prices!)

They say in the sales page that the system will tell you how to lay at SP prices but since nobody even knows what the SP price is until the race starts, it doesn’t work. You can’t lay to SP unless you get lucky or try to get matched in play, which won’t always happen and as such would result in far fewer bets.

 The method they teach can be summed up as “monitor odds throughout day and bet if the odds seem to be falling or look like they might be SP odds”. Obviously this won’t get you SP prices very often because it is not much more than guesswork and luck and if it was as easy as that then trading and profiting on Betfair would be very easy indeed.

Even if it did work and you could lay to SP prices it would also involve spending much of the day watching odds which I doubt many people will want to do or have the time to do as they likely have to work and you couldn’t even use a bot because bots don’t know what the SP price will be either nor can it know whether or not the price will be 10% or less over SP.

If the authors wanted to be honest and show realistic profits on their site they could easily have used Betfair SP which everyone can achieve without any problems and will often be very similar to Betfair’s normal prices, but instead they have opted for the most profitable looking odds instead of the most realistic and obtainable odds.

As a brief example of what I mean, below are the SP odds in comparison to the Betfair SP odds of the last 5 losing selections the system has had. I have used BFSP because anyone can get it and there is always liquidity. You can also set liability limits so Betfair wont bet if the liability is outside your comfort zone which is perfect for systems like this as you could set the liability to 14% of the bank which is what the system recommends you risk.

THE OSTEOPATH              SP=11                    BFSP=16               (45.45% difference)

ROKER PARK                      SP=10                    BFSP=12.96         (29.6% difference)

SIOUX RISING                    SP=8.5                  BFSP=9.82           (15.53% difference)

ROCKETBALL                      SP=7.0                  BFSP=8.86           (26.57% difference)

LE TOREADO                       SP=6.0                  BFSP=5.86          (-2.4% difference)

As you can see above, on one occasion the BFSP was lower (which does happen but is rare) and the rest were all more than 10% over, one as much as 45.45% over and another 2 both over 25%!

To SP the loss would have been a whopping 37.5 points to level stakes. To SP +10% the loss would have been 41.25 points, enough to make even hardened gamblers turtle head their underpants, HOWEVER the more realistic loss is 48.5 points which is about another 8 winning bets you would need to make back your losses and on average the odds were 22.95% more than SP, not  10%.

The £171, 692, 08 profits they show (as of 09/07/2009) in large letters on the advert is unachievable and should be removed for false and very misleading advertising in our opinion as no one will have made that amount. I cannot help but think that they know this and that makes this system a bit of a scam due to the way it is portrayed in the advert.

The 2^nd worrying thing is the rules. Although they are based on past results some just don’t seem to have any logic to them. If there is any, the author has failed to mention it and has instead just basically written the rules down which is a bit lazy. Also when the Secret betting Club reviewed this system they tested it over many years and they discovered it has only produced a profit since 2004. How convenient that the Winner to losers site only shows profits since 2005! Can anyone else smell a rat?

 Anyone can come up with a few basic rules and then show the results of these rules to SP and they will very likely show a big profit. They could also add 10% and still show a profit if the strike rate was high enough. If you could lay to SP the whole world would be full of millionaires as laying horses is extremely easy to SP prices and it would not be too hard to profit by simply picking horses at random. A 5 year old can do it and that is no joke.

Unfortunately you can NOT lay to SP enough times to profit in the long run. The smallest percentage over SP makes a massive difference in the long run. 20% more will usually turn a nice profit in to a loss and many of the bets will likely be over 20% no matter how much time you spend sat wasting your life studying odds all day.

I myself wrote a tennis laying system a while back which at the time I thought was fantastic until I realised it wasn’t as great as I thought. Some years to SP prices the profit was 90+ points! But when I sent it to the Secret betting Club to review for me they pointed out that if you add just 10% to those odds that profit became almost a 30 point loss! This surprised me but when you sit and work it out they were right. It is surprising how much of a difference the tiniest percentage over SP odds can make.

HOWEVER it is not all bad news. Winners to Losers very likely does make some profit  though it would be impossible to say how much without going through all the selections recording the actual odds achievable on Betfair which I don’t have the time to do as it would take a very very long time indeed.  I can also see the logic in SOME of the rules used, so it is not the worst system in the world and it has the bonus of being able to use level stakes.

 However because it has only made a profit since 2004, it means that either before then the system was just unlucky, or after then it was just lucky, OR the rules are just not strong enough and it could go either way. Because of this and the fact that they are advertising using unachievable profits I will put this system in the Neutral section.

I can’t recommend anything that is based on unachievable odds and questionable rules especially when the odds are so high and the price for the system is nearly £100 however it will still likely make some profit and IF you happen to be someone who does have the time to sit around studying odds all day and IF you think you could manage to get odds of about 10% over SP on a regular basis and IF you don’t mind the fact that the system could go either way then you may like this system, but that is a lot of if’s!

If they had shown all odds to Betfair SP or a more achievable percentage other than SP+10% (they should be using an average of 20% at the least) and if they had written exactly why they have used 2 of the rules they use which don’t seem to make any historical difference, and if they had also shown the years when it failed to make a profit instead of conveniently only showing the back tested results from 2005, I may have recommended it but I’m afraid there is just too much going against it and not enough going for it to justify the high price and high risk involved in my personal opinion.

BSU System Rating (0=VERY POOR, 1=POOR, 2=OK, 3=GOOD, 4=VERY GOOD 5=EXCELLENT)

PROFITABILITY – Very hard to tell so I shall give it a 2

EASE OF USE – 1 if used in the intended way which is to try to get SP prices

VALUE FOR MONEY - 3 if you are going to be betting with large stakes, 1 if not, which means a rating of 2

HONESTY - 1

OVERALL RATING – 1.5